Turning Almost Hot Next Week

Much to cover in this update. Big east-to-west differences in timing of the showers and storms late today and Saturday. Then, a cold front with storms Monday morning followed by a day of slightly cooler but much drier air. Finally, some “almost hot”, somewhat humid mid-to-upper 80s weather rolls in for the end of next week. Note that I have several differences with the Foreca graphic this morning, so follow along below.

Here’s my key points:

1) There’s a chance that some showers and storms will make it into the Hammond to Kenner area by this (Friday) evening, but these storms will be very slow to move east with showers not likely in the Slidell area until the pre-dawn hours.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are likely for most of us Saturday morning. Half inch amounts in places seem likely. Then, there could be a break. So the continuous rain bars on the graphic are a bit misleading.

3) Showers and storms will most likely redevelop in the Slidell-Picayune-Bogalusa areas in the late afternoon hours on Saturday and move eastward into Mississippi. If this slow moving system develops, this could drop an inch of rain.

4) We should break out and see partly cloudy skies mid-day on Sunday with temperatures getting into the 80s. But this warmth will bubble up some scattered afternoon showers, more likely in inland areas. Amounts will be light.

5) Cold front coming in with fast moving showers and storms from the NW on Monday morning. Expect gusty winds with these, but only a brief downpour.

6) Brief cool down on Tuesday, especially with morning lows in 50s. Best day of the bunch with low humidity and still warm afternoon temps.

7) Didn’t see this coming: Almost hot mid- to upper-80s weather for Wednesday - Friday of next week. Think Foreca lows of low 70s are a few degrees too high, but still this will be the most humid spell of the year. Hardly mid-summer, though.

8) Disagree with the graphic’s piddly afternoon shower amounts through the hot spell. At time like these ,I wish I could make my own time series graphic.

Next chance of thunderstorms possibly next Friday night or Saturday night. This is so difficult to forecast because thunderstorm systems over Oklahoma during the day, if they develop in a certain way, may self propagate all the way to the Gulf. We have plenty of time to watch this.

Signs of a more serious cold front coming though from anytime from late Sunday April 6 to Wednesday April 9 should cool us off with highs dropping back into the low 70s. Models agree on the idea, but not the timing.

American long-range model is downright funny with it trying to spin up a hurricane in the Gulf along this front in early April. Not happening, but watch some weather blogger make a big deal of this.