Typical Start to June

A warm up to the 90s with increasing humidity and low rain chances — quite typical for the first week of June. Then, a chance for some tropical development either in the Western Caribbean or Southern Gulf in the long-range beyond 10 days. Again, not unusual to see one of these in mid-June and they usually are more rain makers than wind destroyers. I’m not at all confident one will develop, and even if it does it will probably go elsewhere. I’ll speculate in the long-range section.

For once, the Foreca graphic seems to underplay the rainfall. I see a 30% chance of afternoon showers on Wednesday, 20% on Thursday. Without a strong return flow from the Gulf until later this week, low temperatures and humidity gradually rises through Wednesday. High temperatures seem to tack on a degree each day with highs reaching 90 by late in the week.

Not expecting much precipitation, so keep watering. If you are into the “real feel temperatures”, tack on about five or six degrees to the actual highs. Bottom line: You’ll notice that our version of summer has arrived by mid-week.

About that possible tropical development: If it takes place, it would happen June 12-14 and could make landfall as a tropical storm or hurricane in the US 2-3 days later. I’m going to take a position closer to utter dismissal than hype. Regardless, it would impact our rain chances. Let me explain.

Most of the elements appear to be in place for a development - warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, a favorable upper air pattern (Madden-Julian oscillation in the right phase), and ample mid-level tropical moisture. However, one of the unknowns is low level convergence needed to force the air to rise in thunderstorm complexes that drive development. That would be provided by a strong Central American Gyre and that’s the one element that is not likely to be known until a few days before formation.

One of the models, the American GFS has been producing a hurricane for every model run for the last four days. Yet it keeps delaying the development (happens every model run around hour 200) and forming it further west and north with . That could indicate a quirk in the model since the physics and resolution are less sophisticated in the long-range to save computer time (There’s a great reason why, but it would take another paragraph to explain). This results in a hurricane that hits further and further westward - now into Texas. In short, this casts doubt on the GFS.

On the other hand,The ECMWF doesn’t forecast more than an open wave (not even a depression) creating a few showers in the Western Gulf near the Texas-Mexico line. The answer may be somewhere in between the two models. I don’t totally buy the ECMWF because the GFS often is the first to signal that something is or could happen.

Given a far from certain scenario of a weak tropical system moving to our south and west, we would see an increase in deep tropical moisture meaning more showers and thunderstorms around June 15 that would probably last a few days. After that, we could snap back into a dry spell for a week before the annual July monsoon arrives during the last week of June.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows really nice weather with slim shower chances starting Wednesday. Highs mid 80s, lows mid to upper 70s.