Update on Tropical System in SW Gulf

This visible satellite image shows an increase in storms in the SW Gulf with good high level outflow which will aid in consolidation and storm growth. Note that the storms aren’t solidly concentrated in any one area just yet (nor is rotation readily observed) , so we’re probably 24-36 hours away from a depression forming. NHC pegs the odds at reasonable 80%.

This should form, intensify, and slowly move east because wind shear is not a problem 200-300 miles south of the US Border and sea surface temperatures are above normal. Winds will push it eastward. To forecast beyond Wednesday, I turn to models since NHC has yet to put out a track. Experts are leaning more towards AI models in these pre-formation phases rather than the classic physics-based ones. Evidently, the AI models see a pattern that can be used where the physics ones need a center to work with.

One of the best new AI models is Google’s Deep Mind. Running this models hundreds of time with slightly different initial conditions gives the following spaghetti plot showing the track and final position of the storm at 7 AM Saturday.

The key to using one of these is to see the general pattern without getting bent out of shape about weird offbeat tracks that are not likely to happen. Clearly, the model places the majority of the tracks into the NW Florida Panhandle from the Alabama state line to just west of Panama City. Red indicates hurricane strength. What’s less clear is the timing. Many of the lines stop in the area of the blue circle at Saturday 7 AM. So, the average would be landfall Saturday afternoon or evening, but that could be off by 12 hours.

What about the other models? Another AI model, the ECMWF AI agrees with landfall in the 30A towns (Grayson Beach, Watercolor, Alys Beach) Saturday evening. Several other classic physics models place the landfall anywhere from Alabama’s Eastern Shore to Destin Saturday morning. The model you see me use the most, the ECMWF has a hard time picking this up and eventually creates a depression moving it into Central Louisiana giving us a few inches of rain. I tend to discount it here because it’s usually late to the party (but then often leads the party when it finally decides to make its arrival). The American GFS, is creating quite a hurricane and moving it into Biloxi early Saturday. I discount this because its it wants to spin up a depression in the next eight hours - that’s not happening. It always has a tendency to party hard and hit the road.

Still not 100% certain, but I don’t see a scenario where we’d get damaging winds or coastal flooding. If the ECMWF is for some reason correct, we’ll get another inch or two and another bum weekend. But, if it tracks to Florida as I think we may not see any rain at all. Let me look at this tomorrow..