Warm, Dry Week

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Not much new as we are in for a warm, dry week. But like the story of Elijah in the Old Testament, the models see a cloud as tiny as a man’s hand way out on the long-range horizon. But unlike that story, the rain is not rushing to meet us anytime soon.

The reason for the warm, dry spell: The upper level high bringing that unusually hot weather to Arizona will be influencing us by causing a dry NW flow aloft. This ECMWF forecast for Wednesday shows the upper high in place (red area) and a surface high east of Florida will bring us in light southerly flow from the Gulf causing a noticeable, but modest increase in humidity.

The Foreca graphic looks a few degrees cool in spots, but otherwise there’s only a few comments to make. The high temperatures change little beginning on Sunday, but the lows increase reflecting a bit more humidity. With that humidity, we could see patchy fog starting on Wednesday.. Otherwise — plenty of sun and no chance of any significant rain all week. The only exception: Some models are showing some piddly showers in inland areas on Wednesday.

Models are beginning to break that upper high down and move it east during the following week. Here’s the ECMWF for next Sunday March 29 showing the upper level high has moved east to Florida with troughs and showers coming into the West Coast. We should see a chance of showers maybe as soon as March 30 with more clouds and slightly cooler high temperatures. Then, the troughs on the West Coast will consolidate and push a cold front through here about April 2 or 3.

Here’s the ECMWF temperatures for this period. Scattered showers for the Monday and Tuesday period and showers and storms with the front April 2-3.

Posting will be irregular for the coming week. I will get back to my normal Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday evening routine for the following week.