Warm Late Week...Cold Start to Next

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Last night’s front came through on schedule but the wind behind it was a bit more than I expected. The stiff breeze should die down to a morning whisper which won’t interfere with Lundi or Mardi Gras activities. Partly sunny skies with highs in low 70s are still certain. Enjoy!

Southerly flow will give us April warmth from Wednesday through Saturday, but the further into the week we get there will be some complications. A weak cold front will approach from the north Thursday night giving us a chance of showers. The front will stall somewhere in our area (A common occurrence most winters, but not this one) on Friday before heading north again as a warm front. Again, another good chance of showers on Friday.

On Saturday night a strong cold front will blow through dropping our temperatures back to January levels. That trepidation I had with last week’s long-range was correct - models have all swung in the direction of bringing down Canadian air, though they disagree on how cold it will get. For example, Sunday morning’s ECMWF shows a deepening upper air trough moving to the East Coast (colored contour bands), a deepening surface low in the Carolinas which will help to move that Canadian air south (all those tightly packed light black lines stretching from Illinois to Louisiana). More on that in Long Range Ramblings.

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The Foreca graphic spreads out the rainfall more than I’d like - making it seem like it’s going to rain lightly from Thursday morning to Sunday — not so. Otherwise, the temperatures look good with roller-coaster like ups-and-downs that might as well spell “Flu Season”.

There’s no serious chance of rain until Thursday evening and even then, it will be light and quite hit-or-miss. Friday’s chance of rain looks better, but amounts will be light (a few tenths?) and the showers will move inland by afternoon and then north of the state line by nightfall. Saturday’s afternoons showers should be light, mostly inland, and hit-or-miss. Saturday night’s showers with the front look brief as this system will be truckin’.

Next Monday’s low 40s look quite believable, but the wind will keep the temperatures up and the frost from forming. Look at it as one of your last chance to wear that sweater, turn on the fireplace, or eat your favorite hot cereal. Next Tuesday’s lows will be colder and more challenging to forecast…

For next Tuesday, the American GFS and its poorer Canadian cousin CMC model are acting like they want to extend the Winter Olympics and move them south. The GFS lowers the temperatures to the upper 20s! However, the staid and more accurate European models are keeping things near 40. I’m going to lean in the direction of the European and forecast upper 30’s for most rural and suburban Northshore areas. That would mean that we are flirting with frost three days after hitting 80.and highs mid-upper 80s. Tuesday’s high temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s and the warm up will begin.

Next Wednesday Feb. 25, lows 45, highs 71; next Thursday lows 57, highs 75 where they should stay for Friday and Saturday. Cooling off on Sunday March 1 with showers and another cold front - but the air mass won’t be as cold as next Monday’s.