Warmer Week, Colder Weekend

You can tell we’re moving into a more predictable time of year when Friday’s 10-day forecast is unchanged by Sunday. Whys that? Fewer small scale thunderstorm systems and more larger scale ones.that are easier to forecast.

After an almost cold morning on the Northshore where Slidell’s airport reached 39 and Bogalusa reached 40, afternoon highs recovered well into the 60s. Monday through Thursday’s highs will reach the 70s as morning lows increase by about 5 degrees each day. A deepening low in the Mid-Atlantic states cause by a big dip in the jet stream will drag a cold front through here on Thursday. You’ll notice the winds picking up Thursday afternoon and the temperatures will really fall when the sun sets. There will be a few clouds, but no rain with the front.

Friday morning should be in the low 40s on the Northshore (50s South) but with enough wind to drop the wind chill to the 30s. Unless your child was raised in Minnesota, they’ll probably want that light jacket at the bus stop. It will be time to turn the heater on if you haven’t already. Saturday’s lows should be in the mid-upper 30s with possible scattered frost in rural Northshore locations.

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The Foreca graphic looks great except for giving us a shower with the front, which I’ve crossed out. .There could be a few scattered ones offshore and I bet Foreca smooths this into our area. If this forecast continues to hold, 36 or 37 should be enough to give scattered light frost across much of rural Northshore next Saturday morning However, more densely populated areas such as the cities of Slidell and the 190 corridor in Mandeville-Covington should see readings closer to 40.

We will not stay cool all the way through Thanksgiving. This graphic shows ECMWF highs and lows for six days beginning Tuesday Nov. 17 at Slidell’s airport. Note the steady warm up in temperatures through that Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised if the temperatures reach the upper 70s by that Friday Nov. 20 with a noticeable increase in humidity. Showers and possibly thunderstorms look likely sometime during the weekend of Nov. 21-23. It’s still too early to say anything about Thanksgiving week. But it might not be a bad idea to get that flu shot or boost your immune system with the up-and-down temperatures ahead.

Oh, about watering the garden. I’d limit it to potted pants and newly planted shrubs. Grass has stopped growing and could get fungus with these cooler mornings.

Foreca graphic for the Southshore follows a similar pattern, but lows could be 10 degrees higher during the cold snaps. It will be windier than the Northshore courtesy of all that heat coming off the Lake.