Warming Trend starts on Sunday

I just came inside from grilling cedar planked salmon and what a gorgeous evening it was. Temperatures will steadily fall with light winds and end up in the mid 40s by morning. Tomorrows highs will struggle to reach 70 (and won’t) while Saturday’s will struggle to reach 60 (and might barely make it). In between, Friday night and Saturday morning will feature lows in the upper 30s on the Northshore. Conditions won’t be ideal for frost formation because the winds should stay up.with 10 to 15 mph winds at tree top level. The ECMWF Saturday AM forecast shows the high well north of us in Iowa with those northeast winds over us. Even still, there could be a few isolated low spots in inland areas that could see light frost for a few hours.

By late Sunday, the high moves to the east and our winds turn towards the east south east. A low develops in the Gulf in response to a wave in the jet stream. This ECMWF forecast for 3 AM Monday shows the low in the Gulf with showers and storms over water and a light to moderate rain over Louisiana. This system will drop to the SE and diminish, so there will be a big difference in rainfall chances and amounts from SW to NE in our area. See the discussion below for details.

Temperatures should moderate after this system passes with highs climbing into the 70s by Wednesday with sunny to partly cloudy conditions for the rest of the week.

The Foreca graphic shows the chance of rain in the pre-dawn hours of Monday. Amounts may not be much higher than what we saw on Wednesday morning — a few tenths of an inch. Amounts should be even less in inland areas and on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Clouds will be slow to clear on Monday and there might be a drip or two during the mid-day or afternoon hours, but the bulk of it should be over early, maybe by 6 AM. Tuesday through Thursday of next week will feature a mix of clouds and sun, but I doubt the light showers shown next Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, I think there will be a bit more sun than shown.

The next chance of showers after this coming Monday should be Sunday or Monday, Nov. 22 or 23. Then, Tuesday and Wednesday (and probably Thanksgiving) should feature partly sunny skies and cooler weather with highs in the low to mid 60s, lows in the low 40s. Don’t bet the ranch on the Thanksgiving forecast yet - it’s a long way off. .

Foreca graphic for Louis Armstrong Airport shows more rainfall on Monday — which makes sense since it is closer to the low. Temperatures will barely get below 50 here on Saturday morning but with a bit of a breeze. Again, dismiss the light showers next Wednesday and Thursday.