Water! Next significant rain Apr. 23

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Sometimes, the upper air tells the story. This week’s dry spell will be caused by a slow moving, upper level ridge with warm temperatures that will put a cap on any showers that try to form. This is Tuesday morning’s European model forecast showing the ridge in red.

Sometimes, the story is best told with a surface map. The upper level ridge will break down just a bit and allow a surface cold front to make it through next Sunday morning as shown below. However, the upper level support is so weak that showers will be light. This will cool us for a few days and lower the humidity before the warmth and moisture return.

The Foreca graphic forecasts high temperatures a few degrees cooler than what the Weather Service says — and I agree with the Weather Service, so use my highs instead of the graph. Lows look realistic. Otherwise, the standard spring temperature reminder applies: Expect highs 4-5 degrees warmer in inland areas, especially to our west such as Baton Rouge and Folsom, while they will be a few degrees cooler outside the door of the casino in Gulfport (the Gulf’s influence, not the AC or the chill down your spine from losing all that $$).

You can clearly see the weak cold front come through Sunday morning with a shift in winds and cooler highs for Sunday and Monday. Rain chances are 50-50, but amounts will be piddly to very light. There’s a remote chance of a light shower this Thursday afternoon.

Looks like the dry spell will come to an end on or about Thursday April 23. This ECMWF forecast shows why. The ridge departs and the upper air flow shows divergence (the blue arrows are not parallel). That means air will be drawn upward causing showers and thunderstorms over a wide swath of the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Before the rain…A week from Tuesday Apr. 21 should be nice with lows in the 50s and highs in the low 80s. Wednesday will be warmer and more humid with highs in the mid 80s. Then, the showery period begins and several inches are possible. My preliminary thoughts on May call for above normal rainfall.

Coming in a separate e-mailed newsletter later this week. If I make this email too long with too many graphics, I risk not getting it delivered.