Wet near Lake & Coast; Drier Inland

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The Southshore and the I-12/10 corridor from Madisonville-Slidell-Biloxi have seen noticeably more rainfall than areas 30 miles inland in Northern St. Tammany & Pearl River Counties over the last few weeks. That pattern repeated itself today, and should prevail on Friday and Saturday as well. Blame an upper air pattern on this, as I explain in the next paragraph. Warning: It’s a bit geeky.

It’s all got to do with an upper air trough that is almost over us, struggling to make it through as it moves east and west through several cycles. Areas in and east of the trough should feature more showers (because vertical motion promotes cumulus development); areas to the west, very few. The graphic below from tropicaltidbits shows the trough position in red as forecast by the European model at 4 PM tomorrow (Wednesday). Because the trough is practically over us…tomorrow should see more widespread showers as well as Thursday. Friday the trough moves to our east, so chances diminish, but backs up again to our west by late Saturday and Sunday increasing shower and storm chances.

In the tropics….One tropical storm heads out to sea and two other areas show potential for development. I’ll give you my take in Long Range Ramblings.

At first glance, the Foreca looks as boring as some electronics lab. However, if you look at the expected rainfall you’ll see some of the cycles discussed earlier. Tomorrow, I expect more widespread showers so some of the inland areas should see a few, but amounts will be light. Thursday afternoon should see more of the same with a few storms giving us more substantial rain. Friday’s chances are low. Rainfall chances pick up Saturday morning on the Southshore, Saturday afternoon on the Northshore. Sunday, and probably Monday look wet.

Highs 91-93, except one or two degrees cooler on Saturday - Monday.

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Tropical Storm Dexter well east of New Jersey is heading out to sea and has already reached its peak intensity. Models have backed off developing the area of showers east of Georgia (Near yellow X). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives the area a 40% chance of development in the next week. If anything happens here, it won’t amount to much or move much either.

The other area of interest is the yellow X located closer to Africa than the Windward Islands. NHC gives this a 50% chance of developing in the next week and the American GFS, European model, and the European AI are all developing that wave, or one behind it, near or slightly north of the Leeward/Windward Island chain in about 6-9 days. Upper air conditions should be more favorable in that time, but forecasts are all over the place. They won’t likely resolve themselves until a clear system emerges and gets closer to the islands.

Bottom line: We should be fine here in Louisiana, South Mississippi, Coastal Alabama, and NW Florida for another 10 days, probably two weeks.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows showers and storms that could pop up anytime. Highs upper 80s. Not my idea of beach weather.