Wet Weekend, Clearing on Tuesday

This visible satellite image gives us some clues as to why October is in for a wet start. The advertised tropical wave is placing clouds and showers into the East Central Gulf and is streaming our way at the same time a slow moving front is approaching from Texas. The Gulf system will effect us first giving us increasing clouds and a better chance of showers (70%) tomorrow than we had today. Amounts should still be on the lighter side and surprisingly the higher amounts (still maybe just 1/2”) will be in inland areas during the afternoon as the moisture presses inland (like today’s east-west line a hundred miles north of the Gulf Coast).

The real action starts Saturday afternoon and extends into Sunday morning, as shown on this forecast map for Saturday evening. The system moving in off the Gulf with its deep moisture is right over us (red arrow) at the same time a stow moving front moves in from the west. A weak low pressure area on the front off the Texas coast should move over Southeast Louisiana in the early morning hours of Sunday. All that to say that several rounds of storms should happen during that time period.

The Foreca graphic highlights the higher rain chances late Saturday and Sunday. Extensive cloud cover Saturday and especially on Sunday should hold the temperatures down. Surprisingly, the rain totals are not that high in Slidell, but are considerably higher to the east in Harrison and Hancock Counties and on the Southshore. My take is that everyone should see an inch, but the heaviest storms should occur Saturday night and early Sunday morning from New Orleans to (possibly) parts of Slidell to Gulfport/Biloxi. Some localized areas could see four or five inches — so keep up with the weather between breaks in the action during Saturday evening’s football games. This will not be a severe weather event, just possible street flooding.

After that, the system will be slow to clear. Monday will be mostly cloudy with maybe a few sprinkles. The forecast map for Tuesday morning shows showers near the original front which is now offshore and an area cloudiness stretching over the I-10/12 corridor..Fortunately, a reinforcing cold front to our north will push the cloudiness offshore during the day Tuesday and bring in some drier air for late next week. Wednesday through Friday looks lovely, but will the sunshine stick around through the following weekend?

Yes, there’s some buzz on the Internet about a possible tropical development in the Western Gulf near the Bay of Campeche when the fronts get to the middle of the Gulf next week. A minority of models are showing this and if it happens it would 1) take some time to have tropical characteristics, and 2) Would most likely be a tropical storm rainmaker and not a hurricane. For what its worth, the ECMWF doesn’t develop this, but moves the low as a trough to the NE into the Panhandle of Florida for next weekend, giving us just a band of showers next Saturday night Oct. 10. Again, for what its worth, models are forecasting more showers sometime during the week of the 12th before some real fall weather arrives. For what its worth, models are struggling in the Deep South in this transitional time, so I wouldn’t bet on anything beyond about 8 days.

Foreca graphic shows a lot of rain for Sunday at the beach.along with a wet Saturday. After that, some nice, but a bit cool beach weather for early next week. It’s the type of beach weather that locals love because the tourists stay home to watch the SEC football games. Brisk NE winds should not raise the surf since it is blowing offshore, especially the closer you get towards Destin. Watch out for more rain for next weekend.