When will the rain end?

Been a little wet lately, eh? I’ve had 5.5” in the last three days and 15” so far this month! You need a big rain gauge to handle these deluges and I think I’ve found one.

What’s causing all this? Deep tropical moisture streaming northward from the Gulf ahead of an upper air low which adds lift. This is the ECMWF forecast at 18,000 ft. for Monday afternoon showing the spinning low in East Texas. It’s entrenched because the jet stream pattern over the entire continent is stuck courtesy of an omega block. These blocked patterns tend to happen in May which is why we have had some extremely dry May’s and also some of our worst flash floods. It just depends on what pattern we get stuck with.

Friends, there is hope! However, the pattern won’t shift until next weekend. This is the same model forecast for Saturday evening. Note the pattern shift to a northwest flow over us. That will bring in dry air aloft and finally give us some decent weather.

Until then, can you tell me when it will rain? Actually, no….not with much degree of accuracy. Most of the thunderstorms are moving in small systems, say 30 by 50 miles, they form over the Gulf and then self-propagate in the absence of any moving fronts or upper air waves. We don’t measure the upper air with enough resolution to model this properly. That’s why one app differs from another. No, it’s not that one talking head is better than another.

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The Foreca graphic has the right idea with showers until Friday, then almost no rain the next weekend. And when the rain stops, the temperatures will rise into the upper 80s. With all the wet soil, it will feel like steamy Sumatra or a Costa Rican rain-forest minus the monkeys.

Until then, the pattern looks really wet especially Monday and Tuesday, then again late Thursday to Friday. The Weather Service will issue flash flood warnings anytime they think you’ll get a few inches in an hour because of the wet soils. Inland areas are more likely to see the rain in the afternoon. For most of us who live near I-12/I-10 and on the Southshore, it could storm almost any hour of the day. Almost anyone could get the prize for the greatest rain totals, except for inland areas such as Folsom and Franklinton where it seems less likely.

Expect more sun with highs about 90 for the first few days of June with scattered mainly afternoon showers. Some models are showing tropical development in the period June 3-6 near the Western tip of Cuba. Early season tropical storm or hurricane is not uncommon for a season with a strong El Nino. Then, for most of the season, it’s more like nada than nino.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows not only a wet pattern, but also that there’s still a chance of showers at the beach next weekend.