Will Showery NE Gulf Form a Depression?

We’re currently under a heat dome with no chance of showers through mid-day Sunday. Shower chances slowly improve after that because the heat dome will move slightly westward allowing a system in the Northeast Gulf to throw a few showers and storms are way. But the big question is will be it organized enough to develop into a depression or a tropical storm.

My take is that the chances of forming a tropical storm are low, and even if does show some signs of development, it will be a rain maker for the Florida Panhandle and perhaps Coastal Alabama. Models are picking up on this as a broad trough or weak area of low pressure, such as this ECMWF forecast for late Sunday night showing a trough west of Tampa. However, none of the better models develop it as they shear the system apart as they move it in the general direction of NW Florida.

Gulf lows that develop from non-tropical systems coming from the north like this one, need several days and some tender loving care to turn tropical. (Makes sense: If I go to the tropics, I get some TLC & become a new man.) Here, it’s a combination of dry air aloft over Central Florida during the weekend and wind shear over the Gulf amplifying on Tuesday that will be the constraints. My take is that we’ll see some signs of rotation spinning up here, then fizzling out, then another spin up later over there, then another flame out. Besides, you need a strong high pressure area to the north to push this system as far west as Louisiana — and that’s not happening. So whatever “T” this is — a TD, a TS, or just a trough, Mr. T will stay to our east.

The Foreca graphic shows the heat, then an increasing chance of showers and storms beginning Tuesday. Highs should top out in the upper 90s for most of us in Southeast Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi. I doubt we’ll see the 100 degree mark because the ground is still wet and the solar energy has to go to evaporate the ground first before heating. BUT…the upper 90s is still plenty hot - hottest of the year with real-feel temperatures approaching 110. Expect heat advisories that are well-warranted.

Saturday evening at or after dark could see a thunderstorm or two in Coastal Mississippi, but I doubt it will reach as far west as Slidell. Chances are somewhere in the 10-20% range. Sunday….I doubt we’ll even see that. Monday evening and especially Tuesday chances pick up as the system in the NE Gulf will probably through a few showers and storms are way. The increased rain after Tuesday reflects sea breeze scattered thunderstorms, not rain from a tropical storm. Highs will be held down to the low to mid 90s.

Expect a few wetter than normal days during the end of next week, then a drier than normal one during the week of the 27th. Models turn wet again after the first few days of August.

In the very long range, because of a strong El Nino, expect an unusually early fall. This hurricane season will end early and not drag on. Then, expect a very wet, cool early winter with many low pressure areas and fronts traversing the Gulf. El Nino winters typically don’t bring snow here - but can bring upper 30s and 40s rainy days. Wouldn’t one of those feel good right about now? My crystal ball normally cracks and I hesitate to make such forward thinking statements, but a strong El Nino is lying playing a strong hand in a card game.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a nice Friday and decent Saturday before things turn wet. Not ideal beach weather.