Will weekend storms fit between parades?

Yes, the odds are that they will. An hour or two of thunderstorms is likely as soon as 10 PM Saturday (in the Hammond area) to as late as 8 AM Sunday(in Biloxi). Even with Sunday’s cold front, afternoon highs will still hit 70 for the next two weeks!! ( though morning lows will dip a few degrees from Sunday - Fat Tuesday.)

Tonight, fog will continue to be a threat with light south winds coming over cold waters. Tomorrow, a weak cold front will bring the slightest chance of a piddly mid-day shower. As the cold front moves offshore Thursday morning (see forecast map below), the winds will shift and the humidity will drop enough to reduce the fog threat. Temperatures, though, will change very little through the period.

The front will wash out, the moisture will return from the Gulf by late Friday and a low pressure area will form in Texas and move to the Vicksburg area by Sunday morning (see below). That will drag a cold front through here Sunday morning with storms ahead of it late Saturday night and early Sunday. Read on for more details.

The Foreca graphic looks good with the only exception: Their lack of fog tomorrow morning. The only impact of the two weak cold fronts is morning low temperatures, which will be in the low 50s on Friday, and then again on Monday and Tuesday. Remember that this is for Slidell’s airport, so Tuesday morning’s low on the Southshore will be more like 56-58 which will quickly warm to the 70s. This shouldn’t be a problem for most revelers.

For those of us who care more about what falls in the gauge than what flows out of the bottle, expect anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to an inch. Some light showers could move through Saturday afternoon, then break until the main event arrives toward midnight. Even though the storms will move through quickly, we’ll have cloudy periods. Tomorrow will be cloudy in the morning, then clear off in the afternoon. Thursday and Friday afternoons will be partly cloudy. Saturday will be cloudy, but clouds should leave Sunday morning giving us a sunny Monday and Fat Tuesday.

The warmth should hold for week two. This shows the expected highs and lows from the ECMWF (European) model for that period. There’s a chance of showers on Thursday Feb. 19 with a weak front but it won’t be much. The next front will be stronger and could arrive on the 25th. There will be some seriously cold air in the Dakotas and Wyoming at that time — will it head far enough south to give us a frost during the last few days of February? Time will tell.