Winter from Mon.-New Year's Day

Our Florida weather will last through Sunday with a few more fog events. Then, a powerful cold front will blow through early Monday morning with a strong wind making things feel much colder. Tuesday will flirt with freezing while highs struggle to hit 50 as the winds subside. Wednesday morning will be the coldest with a light freeze in developed suburban areas while rural areas drop towards the mid 20s. Frost is likely on Thursday morning before the warm up takes root.

Friday looks wet with a stalled front in the area but with spring-like warmth.

Note that the Foreca graphic doesn’t show fog, but I think the chances for development tonight and tomorrow morning are very good. Fog on Saturday morning should be more spotty, or might occur earlier in the nigh before a SW wind breaks it up at daybreak.

The graphic clearly shows the abrupt drop in temperature Monday. Before that there’s a good chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm anytime between 3 and 8 AM Monday. I think winds will be stronger than indicated here. Tuesday morning lows should be in the 32-34 degree range just about everywhere on the Northshore because the wind will keep the atmosphere well mixed.

But that won’t be the case on Wednesday and Thursday mornings where there will be light winds and large urban to rural temperature differences. On Wednesday, there could be some 26 degree readings in some areas well inland such as Bogalusa while my citrus grove could stay at 30 degrees. Next Thursday’s readings will be a bit warmer but with widespread frost. Friday looks warmer and wet with widespread showers, but some of the models delay the rain until late Friday and drag into Saturday.

Expect a relatively cloudy, wet and warm period from next Friday Jan. 2 through Monday Jan. 5 or Tuesday Jan. 6. Highs will generally be in the 70s and lows near 60. A front will get stuck in the area and just as it moves through another will replace it. Models show better weather for a few days after that with sunny and cooler conditions.