You know its really summer, when...

How would you complete that sentence? If you’re up for it, email me your answer. My answer: You know it’s really summer when they say a cold front is coming and it will drop the highs to only 85. That will be the case this week when a cold front approaches Tuesday evening (see NWS forecast map below) and barely makes it through by midnight. Monday and Tuesday’s low 90s will be replaced by mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. See the discussion below for the chances of showers plus next weekend’s forecast.

The Foreca graphic catches the idea of lower temperatures Wednesday through the weekend. Unfortunately, only a few of those days will be rain free and the humidity will be only noticeably cooler on the Northshore Wednesday night to Friday morning.

Starting with Monday, it will be a hot one with everyone hitting 90 and only isolated afternoon storms. But, there’s a chance that afternoon storms north of I-20 in Mississippi will charge southward in an outflow boundary and make it into Pearl River and Harrison Counties by sunset. If they make it this far south, they should die somewhere in East St. Tammany or Hancock County shortly after sunset.

Tuesday will be almost as hot with a 50-50 chance of showers and storms anytime from late morning on.

Wednesday could see a somewhat better chance of showers and storms developing near the I-12 in St. Tammany and the I-10 in Coastal Mississippi during the late morning or midday hours before moving south in the afternoon.

Thursday looks sunny without any showers. Friday’s showers should be confined to western sections such as Jefferson and Tangipahoa Parishes. An early look at next weekend shows a decent chance of showers and storms next Saturday.

Temperatures will increase for the second week of June, hitting the low 90s. Expect alternating weeks of below normal rainfall and above normal rain during the month with a general drying trend during the last ten days of June. Temperatures will be close to normal.

Wind shear looks like it will prevent any significant tropical development in the Gulf during the next 10 days.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows that the big news is not any rain, but the wind (see red arrows). There’s plenty of 15-18 mph winds which blow around the sand and cause high surf conditions. Winds get back down to more reasonable levels by the weekend, but the surf might still be high.